ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE

I’ll focus on the economic status of an event, the humanitarian side of invasion is the most important. We all wish neither Ukrainian nor Russian soldiers were killed, the most importantly Ukrainian civilians never face the hardship of being in the middle of the invasion! All the wars are not right even if our ancestors or country do, except a country is defending its homeland against invasion from outside. These all are my own ideas are not concerned with being objective. Definitely, Economical view will be as objective as possible.

In another view, I’m very happy that there are very few countries supporting Russia about the invasion most importantly China is not supporting it. Even if a country has a powerful army, has a bounty of resources, if not economical welfare, won’t be respected by other countries and will be excluded from world countries. Sustainable Economic power!

Russia has neighbours; Norway, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, Mongolia, North Korea and sea neighbour with Japan, the USA.

Russia has a bounty of Raw Materials, Energy and has a big military defence industry. In the world trade among 225 countries, Russia has 13th position in Exporting and 21st position holder in importing. This is the total amount, the important is the exports per person; Russia has the 82nd position among 210 countries for exporting and 128th position in importing. This per capita difference indicates that they don’t have an Efficient Economy. This also indicates that they don’t earn from their own production capacity, they sell the raw materials from their own land and spend it to have military power in the region.

Russia has a good and educated people inherited from SSCB educational investments, they can be guided more to science, medical, technology and overall production.

Below picture indicates What and to Where Russia Exports: total is 470B$; %60 of that is Raw Material

Picture below indicates What and from Where Russia Imports: very wide in the product range

Russia Per Capita Income, 47th of 133 countries the last official records, now it is below the 10k$

We can summarize that the growth forecast up to 2030 is %2!!! (Prof. Özgür Demirtaş)
I can estimate that neighbour countries of Russia will grow more from them.

Which Regions are important in the Russian Economical view

Economic Qualification Ranking (how different, qualified products can be produced) See countries right side

Economic Qualification Ranking of Russia
%30 Dependence is very high, If the supply of any energy is reduced by %5, the price will fly.
Estimation from Prof. Özgür; if this continues as this Natural Gas prices can increase from approx. from 15$ to 25$ and so petrol will see the prices of 120-125$. Although Russia threatens gas prices, America encourages Europe to sell liquid gas.

Russia Exchange Rates, %50 collapsed.

I don’t expect Russia to collapse in a few years of sanctions. Effect of sanctions can be possible; in the year 2030 Russia can still be using 2022s’.
On the other hand, other countries of the world will see record prices in wheat and corn (Ukraine and Russia’s main manufacturers). Especially food-dependent importing countries will face difficulties such as China. Some countries will shift their productions to wheat and corn but at that time they will produce less cotton ie. So the other commodities’ production will change.

Swift ban is very important. This sanction to emphasize the economical results to Russia continues to the event. However it has side effects to the other EU countries, especially Germany. Crypto Moneys’ won’t be a solution to Swift ban. The swift ban has no benefit to any country the USA, the EU, Turkey or another.

The same solution after a war. There is no benefits to Russia or other countries even if anyone get success. NATO is in many countries around Russia, so the Ukraine event won’t stop the Russia’s arguments.

Commodities are bounded each other, if one is weaken the other chain members also become weakens. Global food supply chains will broke up, so the global inflation will increase. So it changes the monetary regulations of the countries and less production more in interest incomes.

All the region countries step by step will increase the military expenditures. I believe they even not in the favour of it. I wish the money should be spend in more to; technology and science to live healthy in a better global environment, doing touristic visits, sports, investing more in education end especially solving global environmental problems.

These are my studies and some notes taken from well-known Turkish Finance Professor Mr. Özgür Demirtaş’s Twitter Space meeting. He got the world record in Twitter Space record.
#1 ON THE LIST OF TREND VIDEOS World Record-Breaking Broadcast: Russia-Ukraine and the Economy

I hope to;
People shouldn’t die; Russians should not die, Ukrainians should not die.
Supply chains should not be broken in vain. Do not increase food prices, poor people suffer from buying food.
Ukraine should allay Russia’s security concerns. Russia should stop the invasion immediately.

It was emphasized that Russia was not at all exaggerated in terms of economy (which is the most important economic power). With each passing day, we will realize what a terrible strategic mistake Putin made:

What did Putin destroy by starting the Occupation 4 days ago, after saying the invasion was a lie 5 days ago?
a) NATO going upside down is more alive now,
b) II. Germany, which has not had a serious army since World War II, is building an army.
c) The country that starts making nuclear threats has already lost its morale.
d) Even if Russia won on the field, it made Zelensky a folk hero.
e) Its economy was not as big and strong as it is said. Now it’s going to be tough.
f) I’m fed up with my gas bluff.
g) The Russian people got into economic hardship for nothing.
h) Russian money is at the most worthless level in history…